概要：①英格兰和英财政部对退欧发出各自警告②欧盟决定在2050年前实现零排放③美国务卿认为恶化与沙特的关系威胁国家安全④国际象棋世界冠军卡尔森击败卡鲁阿纳卫冕成功

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①英格兰和英财政部对退欧发出各自警告
(无相关中文新闻)

A no-deal Brexit could send the pound plunging and trigger a worse recession than the financial crisis, the Bank of England has warned.

It said the UK economy could shrink by 8% in the immediate aftermath if there was no transition period, while house prices could fall by almost a third.

The Bank of England also warned the pound could fall by a quarter.

The Bank's analysis comes after the Treasury said the UK would be worse off under any form of Brexit.

This Bank's scenario is not what it expects to happen, but represents a worst-case scenario, based on a so called "disorderly Brexit".

The scenario looks at the five-year period after the UK leaves the EU.

But by the end of 2023, the economy is expected to resume growing.

"These are scenarios not forecasts. They illustrate what could happen not necessarily what is most likely to happen.

"Taken together the scenarios highlight that the impact of Brexit will depend on the direction, magnitude and speed of the effect of reduced openness of the UK economy," Bank of England governor Mark Carney said.

What is a 'disorderly Brexit'?

The Bank of England has made a number of assumptions - not forecasts - about what would cause a disorderly Brexit.

--The UK reverts to World Trade Organization rules
--No new trade deals are implemented by 2022
--The UK loses all access to existing trade agreements between the EU and third countries
--Severe disruption at borders because of customs checks
--Migration reverses from 150,000 a year to falling by 100,000 a year
The Bank of England does not give a probability of this happening.

What happens during this disorderly scenario?

Scenarios drawn up by the Bank of England show that GDP would fall by 8% in 2019 against its current forecast.

Growth would quickly resume and the economy would expand again by the end of 2023 but be smaller than where it was before.

Unemployment would rise to 7.5%, house prices fall by 30% and commercial property prices collapse by 48%.

Interest rates would reach 4%.

What other scenarios did the Bank of England consider?

The Bank looked at three other scenarios.

--a "disruptive" Brexit - one where the UK retained access to some trade agreements
--what might happen if trading arrangements were agreed to give the UK a "close" relationship
--what might happen if trading arrangements were agreed to give the UK a "less close" relationship

A close relationship is one with no customs checks, no regulatory barriers and a partial deal agreed on financial services.

A less close relationship is one where customs checks start after 2021 and other regulatory checks are put in place.

What happens in these scenarios?

If Brexit is disruptive rather than disorderly, GDP falls 3% over the five years to 2022, house prices slide 14%, and unemployment reaches 5.75%

If a close trading relationship is agreed, the economy could still be 1% smaller than if the UK had remained in the EU but 1.5% higher than the bank's most recent estimate.

If it is less close, the economy's growth could be 3.75% less than if the UK had remained in the EU and 0.75% less than forecast over the last inflation report.

These figures cover the period to 2023.

What does this mean for Theresa May?

Theresa May will not have told the Bank's economists what to say in their report but it is definitely helpful to her. The timing is significant too.

A leaked copy of Downing Street's media grid had today down as "economy". Tomorrow is "security".

So expect a steady drumbeat of official warnings about the dangers of a no-deal Brexit in the run up to 11 December's vote.

Downing Street's hope is that however much they hate her deal (and they do) MPs will come to view it as the only safe option.

The problem is that these kind of warnings, however well-grounded in facts and figures, are too easily written off as "project fear". The more scary they sound, the easier they are to dismiss.

What has been the political reaction?

Conservative MP and Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg has accused Mark Carney of talking down the pound - saying the Bank of England's warnings tonight "lack all credibility".

Speaking to the BBC, Mr Rees-Mogg said "project fear" had become "project hysteria".

And the pro-Brexit former Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith said: "The bottom line of both sets of reports is that project fear like Frankenstein's monster has been resuscitated and is stalking the land."

However, shadow chancellor John McDonnell said: "The Bank has confirmed what other independent reports this week have been telling us: a no-deal Brexit could be even worse than the financial crisis of 10 years ago, and the country would be much worse under Theresa May's deal," he said.

What else did the Bank say?

Mr Carney said the Bank was monitoring markets and indicated that it was ready to lend to UK banks if necessary.

He also indicated that banks might be allowed to hold less capital if risks became too great.

But he warned there was little the Bank could do.

"There is little monetary policy can do to offset the potentially significant hits to productivity and supply that Brexit could entail... the future potential of this economy and its implications of jobs, real wages and wealth are not in the gift of central bankers," he said.

What does it mean for the banking sector?

The Bank of England has exposed seven major lenders to a stress test which it said was two and half times more severe than the Brexit scenarios.

All seven lenders - Royal Bank of Scotland, HSBC, Barclays, Lloyds, Standard Chartered, Santander and Nationwide Building Society - passed the test.




②欧盟决定在2050年前实现零排放

（法新社布鲁塞尔28日电） 欧洲联盟（EU）今天敦促政府、企业、公民和各地区提出远大的减排方案，让欧盟在2050年前实现碳中和（carbon neutral）的理想，即总释放碳量为零。

200多国代表团预定下周聚集波兰，参加联合国气候变化纲要公约第24次缔约方会议（COP24），目的在革新并强化2015年巴黎气候协定，以及遏止全球暖化。

欧盟28个成员国构成全世界最大经济体之一，同时也是污染最严重的经济体之一，欧盟亟于担起责任，成为全球第一个「气候中和」的大型经济体。

欧盟执委会气候行动和能源执委卡尼特（Miguel Arias Canete）今天公布「策略愿景」，仰赖各成员国付诸行动，只是各成员国思维和动作不一。

欧盟执委会公布的策略文件说：「所提策略并非有意提出新政策，欧盟执委会也无意修订2030年目标。」

根据欧盟发出的新闻稿，为了达到目标，此一策略是「邀请」欧盟公民、企业和机构「展现领导力」，提出限排的想法。「成员国将在2018年底前，向欧盟执委会提出他们的全国气候和能源计画草案。」

计画将涵盖先前做出在2030年前削减40%温室气体的承诺，而现在的策略目的是「让欧洲在2050年前达到气候中和」。




③美国务卿认为恶化与沙特的关系威胁国家安全

《华盛顿邮报》专栏作家、沙特知名记者卡舒吉10月2日在沙特驻土耳其领事馆被谋杀，此事在全世界掀起轩然大波。除沙特广受谴责外，川普政府也因没有严惩沙特、没有降级美国与沙特的关系而备受批评。对此，美国国务卿蓬佩奥力挺川普总统维护与沙特友好关系以稳定中东局势的策略。

蓬佩奥认为，“谋杀卡舒吉不能容忍，但美国–沙特关系至关重要”，并把他的观点阐述在了周二（27日）的《华尔街日报》上。

自就任总统以来，川普一直在努力恢复美国与沙特的友好关系，以稳定中东和世界局势。民主党和一些共和党人以人权纪录为由反对川普总统的努力，呼吁降级与沙特的关系。左派政治家和左派媒体更是把谋杀卡舒吉事件作为进攻川普的砲弹。蓬佩奥警告说：“降级与沙特的关系对美国和盟友将是一个严重的错误。”

蓬佩奥指出，长期以来，沙特是稳定中东的重要力量。目前沙特正在保护伊拉克脆弱的民主体制，这符合西方国家的利益，而不是伊朗的利益。沙特也在与埃及等国家紧密合作，帮助一些国家接受因内战而大量逃离的叙利亚难民，并与以色列建立了更巩固的关系。在美国领导的打击伊斯兰国和其他恐怖组织的战争中，沙特已经贡献了数以百万美元计的资金。沙特的石油生产和经济稳定对区域繁荣和全球能源安全至关重要。

“那些用卡舒吉事件作为棍棒反川普总统沙特政策的人，正是那些支持奥巴马与伊朗和解政策的人。”蓬佩奥说：“伊朗不仅残酷迫害本国人民，还在全世界屠杀了数以千计的人，包括数百名美国人。当奥巴马把大笔金钱给这个世界上最大的恐怖主义支持国时，在哪里听到了不同的声音？标榜人权的那些人在哪里？”

蓬佩奥提到，与美国一样，沙特也意识到了伊朗在中东地区制造混乱、触发区域核武竞赛、威胁商贸线路和在全球滋生恐怖主义的危险。因涉嫌卡舒吉事件而备受指责的沙特萨勒曼王子，正在也门努力铲除伊朗和伊朗支持的胡塞政权的势力。面对也门遭受的战争、疾病和饥荒之灾，在过去14个月里，美国为也门提供了近7亿美元的食物援助，沙特为也门提供的人道援助也有数十亿美元，而伊朗没有提供一分钱，也没有任何诚意要外交解决也门的冲突。

“抛弃或降级与沙特的同盟关系并不能促使沙特向更好的方向转变。”蓬佩奥提醒说，“美国和川普总统始终在倡导保障自由，在这方面沙特还有很多事情要做。但萨勒曼王子已经在进行改革，如允许妇女开车和参加体育赛事、遏制宗教警察、回到温和的伊斯兰教等。”

“美国不能容忍谋杀卡舒吉，这在根本上与美国的价值观相背。”蓬佩奥介绍说，川普总统已经采取了惩罚措施，包括禁止涉嫌参与谋杀卡舒吉的21名沙特人进入美国和吊销已有的签证，根据《全球马格尼茨基人权问责法案》对17名沙特人实施制裁。另外，法国、德国等国家也纷纷跟进美国的惩罚行动。如果有更多的谋杀卡舒吉犯罪事实曝光，川普政府还会考虑更多的惩罚措施。

蓬佩奥赞扬川普总统对沙特的政策是“务实”和“正确”的，并说川普总统的批评者们应该重温一下珍妮·柯克帕特里克（Jeane Kirkpatrick）的规劝：“自由的理想主义不必与受虐狂相同，也不必与捍卫自由和国家利益相悖。”

柯克帕特里克曾任里根总统的顾问和美国驻联合国大使。她在1982年出版的《独裁统治和双重标准》（Dictatorships and Double Standards）一书中说，卡特政府（以及前任美国政府）要求传统的专制国家快速民主化，并将这些国家（特别是拉美国家）推向了反美，而这些后建的政权比被推翻的政府更具专制性。她总结说，美国应该鼓励专制国家走向自由民主，但应该期待逐步改变，而不是一蹴而就。




④国际象棋世界冠军卡尔森击败卡鲁阿纳卫冕成功
(无相关中文新闻)

World number one Norwegian Magnus Carlsen has retained his World Chess Championship title, beating US opponent Fabiano Caruana in a tie-breaker event.

He beat Caruana in three time-limited games, ending the American's hopes of becoming the first US champion since Bobby Fischer won in 1972.

This showdown followed a record-breaking streak of 12 drawn games of regular chess.

Carlsen told the BBC that the win was "huge for me".

"Fabiano played very well and he's an extremely strong player so it's very special," he said.

"It was very tense for these whole three weeks and there was no point in particular where I felt I was going to win the match. I didn't particularly feel that I was losing it either. It was always hanging in the balance."

Caruana, however, told Norway's NRK TV that he had had a "bad day".

"I didn't even put up a fight," he said.

Carlsen, who has won the championship three times before and was the favourite to win the game, took a two-match lead and needed only a draw in the third tie-breaker to seal his victory.

But Caruana resigned in the third as it became increasingly clear the Norwegian would win.

Players needed to win the best of four of these shortened games to take the title.

Carlsen's victory came after he seemed to play for the tie-breaker event in the 12th and final regular game - drawing criticism from former world champion Garry Kasparov, who said the "shocking draw offer" showed he was "losing his nerve" and no longer favourite to win.

Vladimir Kramnik, another Russian chess grandmaster, said: "He might be tired of tension, fighting; maybe even of chess itself to a certain degree."

However, the Norwegian is ranked number one worldwide for fast-paced games, whereas Caruana is ranked at number 18.

"I'm a bit surprised that it's never occurred to anybody that I might know what's best for me," Carlsen told the BBC.

"It was a purely sporting decision and regardless of the result today I would have felt that it was the right one.

After Carlsen's victory, Kasparov tweeted that his consistency was "phenomenal".